The Predators-minus-Weber are a surprising 3-1 this season. Meanwhile, two nights ago, the Predators-sans-Suter lost and dropped to 4-7-1 over the past two years. These results have some fans wondering if Ryan Suter is more valuable than Shea Weber, or more pressingly, if Weber can remain dominant without Suter.
To test these statements, I decided to look a little deeper at each defenseman's numbers without his all-star partner. The popular consensus is that Weber is the dominant member of the pairing, the "1A," so to suggest Suter is more indispensable seems counterintuitive. Weber paces Suter in nearly every traditional stat--goals, assists, plus/minus--and the more esoteric possession ones, like Corsi and Zone Finish%.
Unsurprisingly, the numbers show that, despite the W-L record, Weber played fine without Suter. In fact, Weber has arguably performed better without Suter in the past two season than vice versa. First let's compare Suter's performance in the four games Weber missed to Weber's performance in the Islanders game and Rangers game:
| Player | Corsi ON | Corsi OFF | Corsi REL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suter | -11 | -5 | -6 |
| Suter | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| Suter | -6 | -1 | -5 |
| Suter | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Weber | 10 | -5 | 15 |
| Weber | 5 | -5 | 10 |
The biggest problem in using team record to evaluate individual performance is obvious--the team's poor play can overwhelm any one player's impact. I'm using Corsi REL to account for this issue. So in this chart you see: shots when the player is on the ice (Corsi ON), shots when the player is off the ice (Corsi OFF), and the individual's performance adjusted for the team's (Corsi REL).
In all but one game, Suter's results look pretty pedestrian--slightly worse than the rest of the team, even. On the New York swing, by contrast, Weber pushed the shots +15, while the rest of the team was -10.
But what about the 10 consecutive games Suter missed last season, in which the Predators went 3-5-2? Granted Weber was -37 in shots for those ten games, but the rest of the team was a brutal -63. The final breakdown looks like this:
| Player | W-L | Partner | Corsi ON | Corsi REL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weber | 4-7-1 | Bouillon | -1.8 | 1.2 |
| Suter | 3-1-0 | Josi | -3.3 | -1.5 |
There are other considerations here, of course. Bouillon is arguably better than Josi. And these numbers only cover 5-on-5 play--which player provides more on special teams is also debatable (although it's hard to argue with the Power Play going 0-16 without Weber). My point, though, was not to argue for one player being more replaceable--the Predators suffer without either. The idea that W-L record proves Suter to be more valuable than Weber, however, is totally unfounded.
0 recs | 21 comments
I think quite a few of us Preds fans realize we’d rather have Suter IF we had to choose.
kypredsfan - January 19, 2012
why?
Sam Page - January 19, 2012 via iPhone app
Well first off, Boullion is not as good as Josi. Suter is a puck-mover for Weber. Boullion is not that… So I disagree with that statement (even though you did say arguably).
Secondly, Suter calms the play down very well. He moves the puck really well. He carries the puck up the ice OVER Weber. He possesses an under-rated shot that isn’t used that much because of how good Weber’s is… While I agree that with Weber in the lineup our PP might be more deadly, I think Ellis/Josi/Suter could pick up the slack and us still be where we are today.
Third, while Weber is a better “hitter”, Suter is better at breaking opponents cycle. He rarely loses a 1-on-1 battle (if ever) and most every time will come away with the puck that needs to be dug out from the boards.
I love the stats you threw out there and those are FACTS that I can’t dispute. But the only two disputes that I can throw out there is that sample sizes are too small to dictate how each would do without the other, and that the reason why we had as many shots as we had is because the Rangers were in a defensive shell (with the lead) and we were able to generate more shots than they did at that point — which is still not why I am sold 100% on “Corsi” and “Fenwick” (which I am fine with using those when the game is tied 5v5).
For me, we had too many turnovers against the Rangers that slowed down our offensive production. While I think arguing against either one is silly (it is like picking between Chris Pronger and Nick Lidstrom) because it is impossible to do, my preference is Suter.
utmfisher19 - January 19, 2012
fair
I’m not arguing for one or the other—the sample size is too small for that, like you said. I’m just against the 4-7-1=Suter is better argument.
FWIW, I would probably pick Suter between the two too, given what Weber would command in a trade.
Sam Page - January 19, 2012 via iPhone app
i too think josi is better than boulion..i disgree when it comes to suter winning most 1-1 battles. i also think josi carries the puck well, so they could do ok in suters spot. i would like to see weber and josi than cube and weber. i take weber.
predwheels - January 19, 2012
that’s my top reason for picking 20 over 6 if we have to choose, but I’d rather not
el pucko - January 19, 2012 via Android app
i agree
100% with this post :)
Shawn Kehoe - January 19, 2012
Excellent points. I think corsi et al. tell you important things, but there are a lot of intangibles about Suter’s game that make him excellent. Puck movement, ignoring the shots thing right now, is a huge part of Suter’s game. Plus, I think Ellis has the distinct makings of our next Weber-PP-player.
davisca - January 19, 2012 via Android app
besides pp, how does ellis fill weber’s role in the future? i think josi can fill suter’s in a year or so.
because i criticize suter and am not as impressed as many, does not mean i think he is a bad player. i don’t see him as elite as i do weber.
predwheels - January 19, 2012
unfortunately
I’m going to have to disagree with your assessment. I’ve noticed Ellis seems to be the better puck handler and prefers to move the play up ice. I’ve caught Josi deferring to Ellis on several occasions. Ellis does have a good 1 timer, but his stationed slap and wrist shots don’t seem to be as good. Then again, he is just a rookie.
Also, I’d liken Josi more to Suter. He makes good reads and has a quick, accurate pass. He can skate the puck up ice, but like I said above, he has a tendency to follow and fall back on D more quickly. Shots aren’t as accurate as Suter, Weber, or Ellis but I think he has potential to be a better-than-Hamhuis type player.
Shawn Kehoe - January 19, 2012
I agree. Ellis-and-Josi seem like they’ll be the next Weber-and-Suter (respectively). Who knows – I mean, Ellis has played 11 games and Josi has played 26 – but so far they both seem to be happily meandering down the path that leads to a Weber-Suter relationship.
davisca - January 20, 2012
He sees the ice really well, has a great shot (maybe not as powerful, but deadly accurate; I’ll take accuracy over power any day), and is good at moving the puck up the ice, both on his own and with passes. He’s still a rookie who has played 11 games this year, so there’s a lot that has yet to be seen and even more that has yet to develop. From the few games I’ve been able to watch him play live this year, I got the feeling that in a few years he’s going to be just as high-quality of a player as Shea Weber, including his specialization on the PP.
davisca - January 20, 2012
Now do Andy Delmore and Bill Houlder!
cisar - January 19, 2012
Not playing together, just who was more valuable.
I’m betting Houlder!
cisar - January 19, 2012
Karahlahti and Berenzweig!
Lil cutie - January 19, 2012
its hard to beat a bubba in nashville
predwheels - January 19, 2012
He was from near where I went to school in IL!
davisca - January 19, 2012 via Android app
I think there is still too small a sample size...
Especially as it relates to Weber. Plus their replacement is a bigger factor than the relative quality of Weber and Suter. I consider both to be top notch defensemen and really irreplaceable, but depending on what style defensemen you favor, each could be considered better than the other.
I have flip-flopped my opinion as well. Some weeks I think Weber is better than Suter and other weeks, vice-versa.
GoPreds00 - January 19, 2012
is it possible....
that neither is as good without the other. Suter’s game is easier for offensive defensemen to play with because he is more responsible and makes that alimportant 1st pass out of the “D” zone where as Weber’s big shot is the stuff legends are made of. No one wants to be Poile in this scenario.
jeffery101y - January 19, 2012
Gotta agree. And there are qualities that players in leadership roles have that can’t be measured in numbers. For instance, the moments when these guys absolutely changed the face of an important game – like Weber’s tying shot in game 5 of the Ducks/Preds series or his tying shot in the Jan 15, 2011 game against division rivalry Chicago (assisted by none other than Suter) . Those are just 2 examples that come to mind, but I find my opinion swayed more by turning points like those than numbers.
Chas-E - January 19, 2012
Suter/Weber
Many have said the right answer which is there is no right answer. Both are great because of one another. They have been playing together for 4+ years now. I recall as many Id assume when Suter was awful…(not the point) but now they have been groomed and are the future of the Preds. Its rather simple. Make it happen or the ship will sink.
So to spell it our for those who arent quite with me., they need to lock up Suter and Weber. If its for 3 year rather than 5 or 7, thats better than the alternative, I think. And go get a top 6 (whatever that is). Ha. DP hopefully will understand that he made that mistake in Washington years ago, got away with it for a yearish with Weber (RFA fiasco almost/kinda)…Not again. Third time he is out and consequently, so are we as Preds fans.
I understand Suter is waiting and Weber is waiting on him and DP is waiting on both but also waiting for other teams to drop out of the race. We have to wait for a month because that is how its done I guess.
ajs3677 - January 19, 2012
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