University of Chicago economist Tobias J. Moskowitz and Sports Illustrated's L. Jon Wertheim offer a scientific analysis of NFL games to challenge the conventional wisdom that "defense wins championships." Their empirical analysis examines only the NFL, but Joshua Cooper woud probably agree that offense and defense should receive equal weight when making predictions -- at least when it comes to making the NHL postseason.
Lock up the Big Three if you want, Mr. Poile -- but at some point you're going to have to pay for some help up front!
This is what I'm talking 'bout!
As I wrote back during the summer, very few teams make the playoffs scoring under 220 goals during the regular season, 3 at the most will get in with less goals than that. In addition to that, very few of those teams that got into the playoffs with less than 220 goals advanced past the 1st round. The Devils/Ducks series back in 2003 was the one outlier in recent history (us beating the Ducks last season is another rare example of this). At the 41 game mark of this season we had 108 goals scored, 101 last season. That’s enough to likely get a defensive minded team like ours into the playoffs, but advancing is quite a challange, especially if you finish as the 6th seed or lower in the conference.
It is true that we’re doing better than 3 of the current teams in a playoff spot in the West, but it’s the Canucks, Wings, Hawks and Sharks who we have to beat in order to make a deep playoff run. The odds are highly stacked against us if we go up against any of those teams with the forwards we have right now. We’ll play all of them very hard, but effort only gets you so far.
Of course, there’s the added pressure of doing something to hopefully convince the big two to stay here. I’m inclined to think that picking up Yip won’t make an impact in that regard.
Grizzledbear - January 20, 2012 via mobile
Sure we still need a top 3 forward....
but I still believe your defense is just as important. I mean look back at teams that won the cup, they have almost always had a defensive difference maker. Unfortunately the Preds conundrum lies in that we need to get more offense to even be able to lock up the big three. The real question is how much do you give up to get that top 3 forward? You have to know Poile is doing everything that he can without giving away the farm. What do the Preds give up? Don’t even say Colin Wilson unless you have a package with Ryan Getzlaf or another top 3 power forward coming back our way. Our team does not need to get any smaller, as seen in the game against the Rangers. So if we have to lose Wilson, then it better be for another big body with soft hands.
Predmonton - January 20, 2012
I don’t think the article sited or anyone here would suggest that defense isn’t as important as offense, only that it’s not more important than offense either.
I agree with not moving Wilson. The net gain would be significantly reduced by losing a player like him. But all our prospects should be on the table as well as draft picks.
Grizzledbear - January 20, 2012 via mobile
Totally agree, picks and prospects, I have been wish to hear a name like Parise, Roy, or Stastny and Preds together. Hemsky would not be bad but he has been injury prone the past couple of seasons.
Predmonton - January 20, 2012
Not so sure about Roy, he’s kind of another mid-level forward. Statsny is the one that strikes me as a possibility if we’re willing to part with some quality prospects and picks. But as long as the Avs are in the playoff chase, they may not be willing to move him. They did the Stewert for Johnson deal last season, so maybe Ellis, another prospect and/or pick could get some talk going.
Grizzledbear - January 20, 2012 via mobile
You know, if all the elite talent in the league keeps getting injured, we will have a whole team of top six forwards. Maybe Poile is hoping for offense by attrition?
cisar - January 22, 2012
I think it was true in football in the past.
But now they F’ed up all the rules and now defense has to be REALLY good and disciplined to be anything close to effective. Oh, and changing the kick-off placement was stupid.
DonBorvio - January 20, 2012
I think it still holds true in football, look at the playoffs right now, 3 of the 4 teams left have top 5 defenses, but I do agree the rules do help the offense more. As for hockey I think both sides need to be pretty equal.
Preds&niners - January 21, 2012 via mobile
How many teams’ QBs threw for close to or over 5000 yards this season? Ridiculous. Oh, and go Niners. Hope they win the SB!
DonBorvio - January 21, 2012
Pretty impressive
that Marino had 44 and 48 TDs, and his big yardage seasons, at a time when no one else came close. Disclosure: huge Marino fan.
Still, Brees, Brady are surefire HOFers, and Rodgers and Stafford may be at that elite level down the road, so we can’t discount that the QBs are truly impressive…if they were back in the 80s, maybe the numbers would not have been big, but I have no doubt that Brees, Brady, would have been great back then.
PekKarlsson - January 21, 2012
Defense
is the cheaper way to become competitive. Ottawa and Nashville both went that route to be perpetually competitive when times were lean.
Thing is, Nashville, times aren’t lean now. Offense costs money, and while money doesn’t guarantee you a chance to compete, since the lockout you need to be nearer the Cap to get to the Final Four. The Canes did so twice, but their cap values were closer to the ceiling (according to NHLnumbers, their pro-rated cap hit for the year was 51 M, cap ceiling was 56 M in 2009) than the floor. And they went out and got guys, Recchi, Jokinen, Weight, Cole, to help.
I hope Yip is a sign of bigger and better things to come.
PekKarlsson - January 21, 2012
even i am contemplating the getting on the "we need offense bandwagon"
the D corps seems much more solidified since blum and hillen were replaced by Ellis and Josi. The PP is phenominal, the PK is seemingly back on track, the 5on5 GA are in the top 10. The only real weakness I see in the preds game at the moment is in the 5on5 GF category. If Poile can bring in a real game changer(as in not another Fisher, but someone on the “steve sullivan acquisition” level) to fix that, then the preds could be in a real position to do great things in the playoffs.
flyalder - January 21, 2012
You've seen the light! :)
Grizzledbear - January 21, 2012 via mobile
more like
with everything else in place, and cap space to spare, now is the right time to go shopping.
flyalder - January 21, 2012
When are you flying all of us to an away game?
cisar - January 22, 2012
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